Thailand Monthly Rubber Report – November 2025

World Economy

The global economic outlook for October 2025 remained expansionary despite pressures from trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. The OECD projects global GDP growth at approximately 3.2%, representing a slight slowdown from previous periods. Weakening U.S. economic data has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cut toward the end of the year. Meanwhile, China continues to show signs of a sustained slowdown. In the U.S., the Consumer Confidence Index for November declined to 88.7. Furthermore, rising tariffs in certain countries and increasing 'economic fragmentation' are expected to weigh on global trade, disrupt supply chains, and exacerbate volatility in inflation and production costs.

Thailand’s economy continues to expand at a gradual pace amid domestic challenges and heightened vulnerabilities. Exports remain a primary growth driver, supported by a series of government stimulus measures aimed at the consumption and service sectors. Key initiatives, such as the 'Khon La Khrueng Plus' (Co-payment) scheme and the 'Teaw Dee Mee Khuen' (Travel Rebate program), alongside supplementary cash transfers for State Welfare Cardholders, have provided a necessary boost to private consumption. These interventions are expected to sustain consumer spending and bolster the service industry through the end of 2025.

However, the outlook is tempered by sluggish private investment and the ongoing impact of severe flooding in several southern provinces. This natural disaster has disrupted economic activity in affected regions, forcing businesses and services to suspend operations for a recovery period of at least 15 days. Preliminary estimates suggest that total damages will amount to no less than 10 billion baht.

Weather

Weather conditions in November 2025 marked the transition from the rainy season to winter. Upper Thailand experienced cooler temperatures, particularly in the Northern and Northeastern regions, with light scattered rain in some areas and cold conditions prevailing across mountain peaks. In contrast, the Southern region continued to face heavy and persistent rainfall, especially along the eastern coast from Chumphon downward, with several areas experiencing torrential downpours. Furthermore, a strong low-pressure cell or tropical cyclone tracked through the lower South China Sea and moved across the Southern peninsula. This resulted in widespread, heavy precipitation and subsequent flooding across multiple provinces. Notably, between November 21–28, 2025, Hat Yai District in Songkhla Province recorded historic rainfall levels, with a 3-day accumulated total reaching 630 mm. This record-breaking volume led to the official declaration of a disaster zone, marking a major flood crisis for Hat Yai.

Rubber Situation

In November 2025, the natural rubber situation in Thailand saw prices trading within a narrow range and remaining relatively stable. The market faced significant supply-side risks due to severe flooding across Southern Thailand. Estimates suggest that Thai rubber production could decrease by as much as 90,000 tons (valued at approximately 4.5 billion baht) due to flooded plantations and damaged rubber trees. The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) reported that its monitoring covers nine flood-affected provinces, encompassing over 4.1 million rai of plantation area, leading to a production loss of tens of thousands of tons. Additionally, the sector faced headwinds from exchange rate volatility. Regarding average prices for November 2025, Field Latex (price at factory) was 56.00 baht per kilogram, while USS3 (Unsmoked Sheets) (local price) averaged 56.15 baht per kilogram. RSS3 (Ribbed Smoked Sheets) (FOB price) stood at 68.46 baht per kilogram, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month. In October 2025, Thailand exported 410,000 tons of rubber, representing a 15.49% month-on-month increase in volume and a 11.49% increase in value, totaling 23.5 billion Baht, compared to the last month.

Crude Oil Prices: WTI & Brent

Crude oil prices remained stable at lower levels, with WTI and Brent decreasing from the previous month as geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine eased. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending 21 November 2025 rose by 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million barrels.

Reference : The Thai Rubber Association (TRA)